West Africa
North Africa
Central Africa
Southern Africa
East Africa
Macroeconomy
Financial Services
Energy & Utilities
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Media
Communication Services
Agriculture
Industrials
Healthcare
Real Estate
Election Tracker
Democracy Data
Country Data & History
Kenyan Shillings (KES)
USD:KES
+0.00%
KSh 129.31
GBP:KES
+0.00%
KSh 172.91
EUR:KES
+0.00%
KSh 150.90
Last Updated:
December 08 2025, 9:00 AM UTC (Opening Rate)
Description
The Kenyan Shilling is expected to also find some strength in 2024. This comes as the Kenyan government issued a $1.50bn eurobond on February 12, 2024, which has improved dollar liquidity in the Kenyan market as investors' sentiments improved. The recent inflow from the IMF also boosted the volume of dollars in circulation. Also, the Central Bank of Kenya has hinted at intervening in the exchange rate market going forward as they believe that the exchange rate has exceeded its equilibrium rate.
However, despite the appreciation of the shilling, domestic commodity prices are expected to stay elevated in the near term (3 months), influencing consumer buying behaviours and preferences. This is especially true as net incomes fall among the low to middle-income consumers who comprise the bulk of Kenya’s consumer market, accounting for over 80% of household spending. Reduced real income amid elevated prices in the near term will keep low to middle-income consumers price-sensitive, focusing consumption on necessities over luxury.
However, despite the appreciation of the shilling, domestic commodity prices are expected to stay elevated in the near term (3 months), influencing consumer buying behaviours and preferences. This is especially true as net incomes fall among the low to middle-income consumers who comprise the bulk of Kenya’s consumer market, accounting for over 80% of household spending. Reduced real income amid elevated prices in the near term will keep low to middle-income consumers price-sensitive, focusing consumption on necessities over luxury.
Methodology
The Stears Pan-African exchange rate forecasts employ a refined economic model that combines current market data with advanced theoretical underpinnings to predict the official end-point quarterly exchange rates for major African currencies against the US dollar.
At its core, the model establishes a baseline for each currency, factoring in both current and forecasted inflation differentials between the African countries and the US.
To ensure our projections reflect the latest market conditions, we apply a data-driven recalibration. This step is critical in anchoring our forecasts in the present-day financial landscape. We then analyse projected month-on-month inflation rates for each quarter, recognising inflation's pivotal role in currency valuation.
We have also introduced a strategic analytical adjustment – an 'analyst’s premium'. This is a calculated refinement, factoring in market-specific variables and economic indicators not fully encapsulated by baseline inflation differentials. This sophisticated adjustment serves to fine-tune our forecasts, providing users with comprehensive, actionable insights tailored for navigating complex financial markets.
At its core, the model establishes a baseline for each currency, factoring in both current and forecasted inflation differentials between the African countries and the US.
To ensure our projections reflect the latest market conditions, we apply a data-driven recalibration. This step is critical in anchoring our forecasts in the present-day financial landscape. We then analyse projected month-on-month inflation rates for each quarter, recognising inflation's pivotal role in currency valuation.
We have also introduced a strategic analytical adjustment – an 'analyst’s premium'. This is a calculated refinement, factoring in market-specific variables and economic indicators not fully encapsulated by baseline inflation differentials. This sophisticated adjustment serves to fine-tune our forecasts, providing users with comprehensive, actionable insights tailored for navigating complex financial markets.
Data Sources
Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
.png)
