The Stears Exchange Rate Forecast predicts quarterly and five-year currency-to-dollar exchange rates, updated monthly.
Stears’ Exchange Rate Forecast Model provides quarterly forecasts for seven African currencies (Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda) against the US dollar through 2024. The model establishes a baseline forecast based on inflation differentials between each country and the US, a common theoretical approach for exchange rate predictions. To account for Africa’s unique economic dynamics, including market interventions and volatile policies, we introduce an “analyst premium.” This adjustment, calibrated with historical data and updated monthly based on market conditions, refines forecasts to better reflect short-term market changes. Explore the full methodology here.
Official currency of Ghana, managed by the Bank of Ghana
Stears monthly and annual inflation forecasts
The overall change in consumer prices for goods and services, measured as a percentage over time.
The annual change in consumer prices for goods and services, measured as a percentage.
Monthly price changes for specific consumer categories, focusing on core items (excluding food and energy) and food items.
The difference between a country's inflation rate and the US inflation rate, showing relative price changes over time.
The average monthly change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
The average annual change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services.
The SSA Consumer Readiness Index evaluates Sub-Saharan Africa's consumer markets using indicators like income, electricity access, asset ownership, and formal employment, categorising markets as Emerging, Developing, Maturing, or Advanced.
The Stears SSA Consumer Readiness Index evaluates the development of consumer markets across 27 Sub-Saharan African countries. It integrates income levels, electricity access, asset ownership, and formal wage employment indicators. These metrics are normalised, weighted, and aggregated to create a composite score for each country.
Based on their overall scores, countries are divided into four categories: Emerging, Developing, Maturing, and Advanced. Additional demographic and economic data, including life expectancy, median age, inflation, and unemployment rates, are incorporated to enhance the analysis. This framework provides a detailed and systematic assessment of consumer market development. Find out more about the Index here.
Total spending by households and nonprofits on goods and services, measured in both constant 2015 USD and local currency.
Total GDP values in billions of US dollars and annual percentage changes.
Total economic output adjusted for inflation, measuring the actual volume of goods and services produced and quarterly percentage changes.
Total economic output adjusted for inflation, measuring the actual volume of goods and services produced and annual percentage changes.
Total economic output and quarterly percentage changes measured at current market prices, without adjusting for inflation.
Total economic output and percentage changes measured at current market prices, without adjusting for inflation.
The data shows GDP per capita values and annual percentage changes.
Government spending as a percentage of GDP, calculated by dividing total government expenditure by GDP and expressing it as a percentage
Total exports and imports of goods and services, expressed as a percentage of GDP
Domestic credit to the private sector, expressed as a percentage of GDP, includes financial resources like loans, trade credits, and other receivables
The total income earned by a country's residents and businesses, including earnings from abroad.
Average annual income per person in a country, including earnings from both domestic and foreign sources.
Sovereign credit ratings assess a country's ability to meet long-term foreign currency debt obligations, provided by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch
Key stock market indicators including the main index, total market value, and returns, measuring overall market performance.
Total value of international trade activity, including imports, exports, and overall trade balance. The data was collected in USD Million and converted to GHS figures using end-of quarter foreign exchange rates.
Net foreign investment in stocks and bonds, measuring the difference between investment inflows and outflows.
Net foreign investment into the country, measuring new investments minus withdrawals, expressed as a percentage of GDP
Measures the percentage of bank loans in default or significant payment delay relative to the total loan portfolio, indicating asset quality
A monthly measure of private sector activity across six key business metrics: output, new orders, inventories, employment, business confidence, and supplier delivery time, where values above 50 show growth and below 50 indicate decline.
The difference between a country's income from foreign sources and payments to foreign recipients, including trade, services, and transfers.
The difference between government revenue and spending, showing either a surplus or deficit in public finances.
The manufacturing sector's contribution to economic output (GDP), measured in value terms and as a percentage share.
The industrial sector's contribution to economic output (GDP), including mining, manufacturing, construction, and utilities.
The share of employment by gender, with breakdowns for male and female workers, reflecting employees in paid jobs with defined contracts
The percentage of total employment by gender in unstable jobs, including self-employed individuals without employees and unpaid family workers.
Measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.
Unemployment rate, defined as the share of the labour force without work but available for and seeking employment, based on standard international definitions
Total population broken down by age groups, showing demographic distribution.
The SSA Financial Inclusion Index assesses financial service depth in Sub-Saharan Africa using metrics like formal borrowing, account ownership, and mobile banking usage, highlighting market development and growth opportunities.
The Stears SSA Financial Inclusion Index examines digital financial service adoption across 18 Sub-Saharan African countries using data from the World Bank’s Global Findex survey. It integrates account ownership, formal borrowing, and digital banking indicators. These metrics are normalised, weighted, and aggregated into a composite score. Countries are classified into four categories: Emerging, Developing, Maturing, and Advanced. The index incorporates nationally representative data to ensure consistency and comparability across countries. Trends are tracked using normalised metrics, enabling detailed analysis of digital financial service adoption. Find out more about the Index here.
The ratio of total government debt to economic output (GDP), indicating a country's ability to pay its debt
External debt owed expressed as a percentage of annual real GDP
The share of national income used to pay interest and principal on debt obligations.
Total public debt includes long-term debt, IMF credit, and short-term debt with a maturity of one year or less, reported in USD billions.
Government debt obligations due within one year, measured in US dollars and as shares of external debt and reserves.
Total government income from all sources, expressed as a percentage of economic output (GDP).
Total tax collected by the government expressed as a percentage of economic output (GDP)
Foreign currency and assets held by the central bank, used to meet international payment obligations and support monetary policy
The monthly total amount of money in circulation, including cash, bank deposits, and easily convertible financial assets.
The annual total amount of money in circulation, including cash, bank deposits, and easily convertible financial assets.
Money transferred by people working and living abroad to their families in their home countries, measured as total inbound transfers.
The number of active SIM cards or mobile lines per 100 people
The percentage of the population with access to internet services.
The percentage of population with electricity access, broken down by urban and rural areas.
The number of commercial bank loan accounts per 1,000 adults, calculated by dividing total borrowers by the adult population.
The number of ATMs per 100,000 individuals, reflecting the accessibility of banking services.
Financial institution account usage among individuals aged 15 and above, segmented by gender.
Digital payment trends and behaviours among individuals aged 15 and above.
Saving behaviours across different sources among adults aged 15 and above.
Borrowing behaviours across different sources among adults aged 15 and above.
The average years a newborn is expected to live under current mortality rates.
The share of primary school-age children enrolled in public and private schools, broken down by gender
The taxes applied on imported goods, calculated as weighted (by import value) or simple averages, indicating trade barriers between countries.
The key interest rate set by the central bank to influence lending costs, credit growth, and overall economic activity.
The base interest rate banks charge their most creditworthy corporate borrowers, serving as a benchmark for other lending rates
The average rate banks pay customers for keeping money in their deposit accounts, varying by account type.