The Stears Pan-African exchange rate forecasts employ a refined economic model that combines current market data with advanced theoretical underpinnings to predict the official end-point quarterly exchange rates for major African currencies against the US dollar. 

At its core, the model establishes a baseline for each currency, factoring in both current and forecasted inflation differentials between the African countries and the US.

To ensure our projections reflect the latest market conditions, we apply a data-driven recalibration. This step is critical in anchoring our forecasts in the present-day financial landscape. We then analyse projected month-on-month inflation rates for each quarter, recognising inflation's pivotal role in currency valuation.

We have also introduced a strategic analytical adjustment – an 'analyst’s premium'. This is a calculated refinement, factoring in market-specific variables and economic indicators not fully encapsulated by baseline inflation differentials. This sophisticated adjustment serves to fine-tune our forecasts, providing users with comprehensive, actionable insights tailored for navigating complex financial markets.